This flare-up continues an escalation cycle that began with Pakistani strikes on February 22 across eastern and southeastern Afghanistan.

The country at the center of this story, India, started shifting its crude import strategy sharply after March 2026. Before this, it mostly relied on oil from West Asia, especially from nations like Iraq, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait. But when the Strait of Hormuz disruptions began, those traditional flows became risky and expensive.